Early-life weather shocks and long-term cognition in China (Eléonore Rouault)

Abstract : This study investigates how early-life exposure to weather shocks affects cognitive function and its decline after age 50 in rural China. While extensive literature documents the immediate effects of environmental shocks on early-life health and human capital, I examine a longer exposure period (from in utero to age 15) and its impacts on cognitive aging. Exploiting both cross-sectional and panel dimensions of survey data, I find that early childhood (prenatal to age 4) is particularly critical. A one-standard deviation increase in weather shocks during this period reduces cognitive scores by 0.05 standard deviations after age 50—equivalent to the cognitive decline typically observed over 1.5 years of aging. Moreover, prenatal weather shocks accelerate cognitive decline, observable after age 65. The effects appear to be driven by both the sensitive prenatal period and reduced human capital investment following these shocks.