Thèse en cours : Three political economy essays about climate in developing countries

Université Paris Dauphine
Sous la direction de Flore Gubert et Marion Mercier
Date d’inscription : Septembre 2023

This thesis offers three chapters in the field of political economy, with the aim of providing a better understanding of certain aspects of the multidimensional relationship between climate, economy and society. This better understanding is essential to be able to inform on the potential consequences of ongoing and future climate change, and all the more urgently required for the most vulnerable regions of the world.

The aim of the first chapter is to study the effect of extreme weather variations on several electoral outcomes (voter turnout, electoral competitiveness and vote coloration) for various Brazilian elections at the municipality level. Using panel data, the aim is to highlight the existence of a causal link between climatic anomalies and voting. Part of this chapter will also be devoted to exploring certain channels through which this effect may operate (dependence on agriculture and access to information). The second chapter looks at political decision-making and the role of policy-makers. More specifically, it aims to study the extent to which certain specific characteristics of political decision-makers can influence environmental decision-making. Using data from Brazilian municipal elections and a quasi-experimental method, it will highlight the existence of a potential causal link between certain characteristics (gender, level of education, career path) of mayors and environmental decision-making (public spending on the environment and land use). The aim of the third chapter is to study the potential relationships between climate, migration and conflict. Using mobile phone data from Mali, it will reconstruct exhaustive migratory routes and cross-reference this information with weather conditions and the occurrence of violent events in departure and destination areas.