Flore Gubert, Christophe Jalil Nordman

Paris : OCDE, 2008, 37 p.

Table of contents

Introduction

Part I – Explaining past migration behaviour to predict future migration flows

1- Overview of current migration patterns from Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia to OECD countries Numbers of Algerians, Moroccans and Tunisians in OECD countries Distribution of migrants by education level

2- Main push and pull factors of past migration flows Migration theory Estimating the determinants of migration from the Maghreb: a gravity approach 

Part II – Economic and Demographic Prospects in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia

1 – Economic Prospects Growth performance and living standards prospects Comparing different scenarios for per capita GDP growth Poverty trends and projections

2 – Demographic trends and labour force projections in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia Population growth Population structure Urbanization

Part III – Climate change and future migration patterns
Projected overall impact of climate change in the Maghreb
Sectoral economic impact of climate change in the Maghreb
Climate change and forced migration in the Maghreb: views from the past.

Conclusions
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